Excellent essay as per usual, however, after working for the last couple of years on trying to clean up the voter rolls here in NY, I am very worried about the DemonRat cheating that is already baked into the cake.
This election is all about ballots as opposed to votes and it looks like Mr. Clyburn who helped FJB steal his last election has already set up strategic polling places where massive amounts of fake ballots can be introduced into the mix.
Ballot counting means nothing because if a phony ballot gets to the counting stage it's already too late. Also, we have many, many thousands of "voters" registered illegally to non-existent addresses that are UPS stores, parking lots, Walmarts, etc. There are an amazing number of ways that our elections are being stolen, yet the RNC/GOP doesn't seem all that interested.
There are millions of people like me who will crawl through broken glass to vote for our President Trump, but if our votes are stolen or diminished by fakes, what good will it do?
My best hope today is that Elon is now involved with Team Trump's technology division. If anyone can solve this problem it's him.
Please keep up the good work. I am always glad to read something a bit more positive.
That's a strange question. It takes me some time to trust anyone, especially those I "meet" online. I do enjoy your work and am glad that your surmises about the election turned out to be correct.
Say it with me, kids: PAPER BALLOTS AND VOTER ID WITH EVERYONE VOTING ON THE SAME DAY. That is the best way to secure the vote.
If you want an absentee ballot, you better fill out a notarized form with a doctor's note 6 months in advance of Election Day. That ballot request needs to be viewed and reviewed by at least THREE elected - not appointed - officials, randomly chosen from a pool of eligible people, using a randomizing mechanism used by State Lottery systems.
Oh really? Any fraud would add just enough to turn a loss into a win. The same method could be used this year. It's not about adding any particular number of votes. It's about making sure the outcome is as desired.
I think the Democratic Party doesn't care about all of her downsides because they are going to fix the outcome of 2024 "biggly." I think they're emboldened by 2020 and the messaging to women in 2022. And if the fixing doesn't work, they will just fail to certify the election results in January 2025. Heads they win, tails they win.
So zero fraud? What is even that case? That one can only hack dominion X percent? If you seriously believe Biden won with fraud then you shouldn’t be looking at polls or voting at all. You should give up on democracy. Gather sister wives.
All of those 2020 polls were pre-Dobbs and pre-J6 which did disgust a lot of normal people.
He’s also done a lot of annoying bitching and whining.
This was always right wing cope for a president that, in 2022 and 2024, led his party to the worst mid terms since Truman and single worst performance by a single term president since Hoover.
Trump could deliver deportations and thats about it.
This will not improve inflation. There are too many indicators America is in permanent economic decline for any single party to form a coherent coalition going forward. It was a race to then bottom and we're there. We're not getting manufacturing back, and if we did, it would be highly automated.
The best his blue collar workers he attracted can hope for their children, really, is minimum wage jobs in the chicken sorties once the illegals are deported.
They’ve spent the last weeks building her up to where she leads all the polls and is the prohibitive favorite in November. Why would they not finish the job?
The reason he polled well in swing states and that in reality he just squeaked by is because they created the expectation that he would win and they had to 'find' the number of votes to get him over enough not to call their results into question. There is trouble brewing if they have not cleaned up the process. No matter hiw many people vote for the don, they'll keep counting till they 'get it right'.
Yeah I never understood why right wingers trust the polls so much. Did they not live through the 2016 election? The polls are obviously rigged as a way of generating fake buzz for the left wing candidate. Are you really going to complain that the corporate news outlets lie constantly about every subject EXCEPT polling data? Why would they tell the truth in just one subject and lie about everything else?
Ben Shapiro is the worst at this. He’s constantly hyper focused on polling data. He did this exact same thing in 2016 too and convinced his audience that Trump had no chance at winning.
Thanks, Mr. Lippincott. As usual, amazing analytical work from you. I hope you are right. Dems know they literally have nothing positive to bring to the table, hence the millions of foreign military age men already illegally in the country.
Indeed. My prayers were answered. I hope it’s the start of American revival we so much need and deserve. Keep analyzing the world: we need clear minds like yours at work!
Do you have a margin of error factored in for ballot harvesting? Or with states that will have more ballots than actual voters? My unscientific estimate is that 90%+ of those will be for Harris. Election fraud will determine the winner of the popular vote. I don't think the GOP has prepared for this.
In 2016 I told every pollster I was voting for HRC and so did all my coworkers—to avoid being put on terrorism watchlists and having our bank accounts frozen should she have won. And you recall how HRC was in the lead right up until Election Day, when all the news idiots were smugly smugging it up during their smug election broadcasts.
I sometimes wonder if that’s what is happening now.
She is beyond awful. As a 30-year veteran of the global capital markets, I wrote a quick primer on precisely how stupid she is, based on ONE of her dozens of stupid proposals:
The fact that this buffoon is our VP is already condemnation of the failed American System of governance. The further fact that the powers behind Mr. Handsy Hair Sniffer think they can prop her up to get into power and that this is OK for the nation is even more condemnation that normal Americans have permitted this bullshit to continue.
All of above is great. The elephant is still in the room: can the votes be counted legitimately?
Put another way, if Democrats do the same amount of fraud as they did in 2020, Kamala still loses.
Excellent essay as per usual, however, after working for the last couple of years on trying to clean up the voter rolls here in NY, I am very worried about the DemonRat cheating that is already baked into the cake.
This election is all about ballots as opposed to votes and it looks like Mr. Clyburn who helped FJB steal his last election has already set up strategic polling places where massive amounts of fake ballots can be introduced into the mix.
Ballot counting means nothing because if a phony ballot gets to the counting stage it's already too late. Also, we have many, many thousands of "voters" registered illegally to non-existent addresses that are UPS stores, parking lots, Walmarts, etc. There are an amazing number of ways that our elections are being stolen, yet the RNC/GOP doesn't seem all that interested.
There are millions of people like me who will crawl through broken glass to vote for our President Trump, but if our votes are stolen or diminished by fakes, what good will it do?
My best hope today is that Elon is now involved with Team Trump's technology division. If anyone can solve this problem it's him.
Please keep up the good work. I am always glad to read something a bit more positive.
Thank you.
Do you trust me now?
That's a strange question. It takes me some time to trust anyone, especially those I "meet" online. I do enjoy your work and am glad that your surmises about the election turned out to be correct.
Say it with me, kids: PAPER BALLOTS AND VOTER ID WITH EVERYONE VOTING ON THE SAME DAY. That is the best way to secure the vote.
If you want an absentee ballot, you better fill out a notarized form with a doctor's note 6 months in advance of Election Day. That ballot request needs to be viewed and reviewed by at least THREE elected - not appointed - officials, randomly chosen from a pool of eligible people, using a randomizing mechanism used by State Lottery systems.
Oh really? Any fraud would add just enough to turn a loss into a win. The same method could be used this year. It's not about adding any particular number of votes. It's about making sure the outcome is as desired.
I think the Democratic Party doesn't care about all of her downsides because they are going to fix the outcome of 2024 "biggly." I think they're emboldened by 2020 and the messaging to women in 2022. And if the fixing doesn't work, they will just fail to certify the election results in January 2025. Heads they win, tails they win.
I was right
I suspect they are improving their game.
They aren't
So zero fraud? What is even that case? That one can only hack dominion X percent? If you seriously believe Biden won with fraud then you shouldn’t be looking at polls or voting at all. You should give up on democracy. Gather sister wives.
All of those 2020 polls were pre-Dobbs and pre-J6 which did disgust a lot of normal people.
He’s also done a lot of annoying bitching and whining.
Polls were dog shit in 2022.
Not zero fraud but not enough to flip. I was right!
There was no fraud.
This was always right wing cope for a president that, in 2022 and 2024, led his party to the worst mid terms since Truman and single worst performance by a single term president since Hoover.
Trump could deliver deportations and thats about it.
This will not improve inflation. There are too many indicators America is in permanent economic decline for any single party to form a coherent coalition going forward. It was a race to then bottom and we're there. We're not getting manufacturing back, and if we did, it would be highly automated.
The best his blue collar workers he attracted can hope for their children, really, is minimum wage jobs in the chicken sorties once the illegals are deported.
So what if they simply do more fraud?
What if they go full Maduro?
What then
No guarantees, of course, but even in 2020 with all the fraud, the polls were still off by a huge amount.
last time the fraud was to win, this time it's to stay out of prison...I expect it to be ramped up.
⬆️💯
Cooked? I've seen her many times on TV and always thought: "baked".
Noice.
Polling is modern day astrology with a more niche audience.
My prediction was a lot better than astrology.
It was probably better as a result of other indicia other than modern polling and also your insights. Which you do discuss in your article.
I myself trust the reading of black cockerel entrails by the light of the full moon at a country crossroads, myself. Much more reliable.
This was amazingly prescient, in retrospect. RESPECT.
Thank you!
Good analysis.
Damn right
Great post. Would love to see more data driven analysis of this nature, in general.
I'm off the opinion that she's a sacrificial lamb more than a serious candidate
I myself am on that opinion.
They’ve spent the last weeks building her up to where she leads all the polls and is the prohibitive favorite in November. Why would they not finish the job?
Looks like I was right
*of the opinion
The reason he polled well in swing states and that in reality he just squeaked by is because they created the expectation that he would win and they had to 'find' the number of votes to get him over enough not to call their results into question. There is trouble brewing if they have not cleaned up the process. No matter hiw many people vote for the don, they'll keep counting till they 'get it right'.
From your lips to God’s ears.
Prayers answered
Yeah I never understood why right wingers trust the polls so much. Did they not live through the 2016 election? The polls are obviously rigged as a way of generating fake buzz for the left wing candidate. Are you really going to complain that the corporate news outlets lie constantly about every subject EXCEPT polling data? Why would they tell the truth in just one subject and lie about everything else?
Ben Shapiro is the worst at this. He’s constantly hyper focused on polling data. He did this exact same thing in 2016 too and convinced his audience that Trump had no chance at winning.
Thanks, Mr. Lippincott. As usual, amazing analytical work from you. I hope you are right. Dems know they literally have nothing positive to bring to the table, hence the millions of foreign military age men already illegally in the country.
I was right. Your hopes were answered.
Indeed. My prayers were answered. I hope it’s the start of American revival we so much need and deserve. Keep analyzing the world: we need clear minds like yours at work!
Do you have a margin of error factored in for ballot harvesting? Or with states that will have more ballots than actual voters? My unscientific estimate is that 90%+ of those will be for Harris. Election fraud will determine the winner of the popular vote. I don't think the GOP has prepared for this.
What do you think now?
In 2016 I told every pollster I was voting for HRC and so did all my coworkers—to avoid being put on terrorism watchlists and having our bank accounts frozen should she have won. And you recall how HRC was in the lead right up until Election Day, when all the news idiots were smugly smugging it up during their smug election broadcasts.
I sometimes wonder if that’s what is happening now.
You are assuming that this polling bias is a constant in time.
I was right. Trump got the same error rate from 2016: 3.1 points
She is beyond awful. As a 30-year veteran of the global capital markets, I wrote a quick primer on precisely how stupid she is, based on ONE of her dozens of stupid proposals:
https://christophermessina.substack.com/p/kamala-is-this-stupid-the-evidence?r=erlb4
The fact that this buffoon is our VP is already condemnation of the failed American System of governance. The further fact that the powers behind Mr. Handsy Hair Sniffer think they can prop her up to get into power and that this is OK for the nation is even more condemnation that normal Americans have permitted this bullshit to continue.
You are not the only one speaking about poll bias: https://twitter.com/markdharris/status/1824450031652388953?