General Smith and the 38th commandant were/are egomaniacs in a small clown car inside the big tent in one of the outside rings racing in circles to prove how dumb and silly they are, and in the main insult most if not all Marines past and present from E1 to four stars who served before the MIC went bonkers and the congress promoted and enhanced dunce cap wearing fools like Milley, Austin and our own Frank MacKenzie author of the now infamous NEO from HKIA. Imagine engaging say a consultant group like but not necessarily McKinsey and Co., and have them encourage you to “divest to invest” all of the critical fighting equipment and units you need to meet your Title X statutory mandates. The consultants must have been giddy as they watched General Berger defy gravity on the high wire knowing he would crash and burn, but knowing the second clown AKA General Smith with his goofy high tight and fresh off passing his combat fitness test is doubling down on their intentionally bad advice! The Stand In Force and Marine Littoral Regiment concepts proving impossible to implement because the Corps had neither the T/O or T/E or the Navy to support the concept. Think of the money the consultants will make advising that the Marines buy back the gear they sold! Saigon Sam in JVille is smiling from Heaven, even he didn’t think this big!
Don’t lose hope, (YET…) but this Marine Infantry Officer would like to morph into the fly on the wall status when and if Mr. Phelan is confirmed as SecNav and has his first and only meeting with with CMC Smith. Hope springs eternal it goes something like this:
“hi ya General, congrats on passing your annual CFT and nice haircut. Can you tell me what it is you Marines do?” “I see you have a mission and you don’t do it. I see you have ground troops that are supposed to float but can’t, and wing assets that can’t fly and oh and an annual budget of $38 billion.” “Further in talking to my real bosses Elon and Vivek we think you nice fellas have out lived your useful purposes.” Dead silence and then the final nails in the 249 going 250 year coffin, “We are going to merge the ground with the Army and the Air with the Air Force, and thanks for coming in, have your papers on my desk tomorrow morning at 0800.” Let’s hope Chowder Society II can save our bacon and someone can get us our war fighting gear back in time for the next brush fire.
As to China, a peer to peer fight with the CCP and a population of 1.4 billion people needs to be explained to this writer. How and where is this happening? Will the rest of the global economies stand by and just watch the USA get its fat overly lazy ass kicked? How soon before the next Jake Sullivan talks his boss into a first strike of nukes? After all everyone knows you can “Win a nuclear war.” There are no serious people left in Washington DC, children with big toys that can end the world talking trash, and a really dumb four star living in the oldest standing structure in DC, saying we will be at war with North Korea in 2019.
We can only hope that on day one the new SecNav fires General Smith as well as all the other current 3 and 4 star Marine toady generals, moves some 1 and 2 star war fighters up and grabs some really tough smart 05 and 06’s who had their asses shot off as lieutenant’s and captains in the GWOT for deep selection to brigadier and Major General.
Brian, many many thanks for the reply. It is really helpful to hear how and where the “infection’ resides. You can’t surgically remove a cancer if you don’t know where to cut. We are likely separated in service time by a good bit, similar to your experiences senior officers particularly flag officers who chimed in from retirement got their good do, and for good damn reason. They had been there and done that, and frankly the lessons of maneuver warfare don’t really change much, other than speed and lethality. What is hard to sort out is where this idea of FD2030 came from, the apologists for Berger and Smith point to guidance from the NDA of 2022, but that doesn’t make sense to me. Okay China is a pacing threat (are they really? Just asking) but that doesn’t absolve the Corps from carrying its assignment and mandates missions. Imagine being so bereft of your own thinking that you ask staff officers to come up with a defense of your plan. If I couldn’t explain a scheme of attack in 5 paragraphs to my rifle platoon, I should have been relieved on the spot. Now to some good news I met a young 0302 1st Lieutenant over Christmas, my goodness was his stuff wrapped up tightly in small balls. He was careful, but was clear if the 38th and 39th CMC’s are thinking they are fooling these young Marines, they need to stop eating the mushrooms growing in the Commandant’s garden at 8th and I. I suspect you want to have a sip of our shrinking medicine so we can all be there when SecNav Phelan meets the CMC. Ought to be a knee slapper. In the meantime, if you already listen to the “connecting files” on Substack then you know how many good young 04/05/06 officers are out there. If not then it is worth subscribing. In a perfect world we just can all 4 stars, most of 3 stars and push the qualified 1-2 stars up and grab these young studs and get them going. As mentioned somewhere else, who says we can’t have a 1 star as a Division CG, while we accelerate their promotion to major general. We need a lot of out of the box thinking whilst we go back to the MAGTF box. It goes without saying Marine but thank you for being part of our jolly crew. We few we happy few. Would very much like to hear more!!
In the x ring again, Mr. Wemyss. Unfortunately, the infection runs deep. I was still working for the Marine Corps as a civilian during most of Berger’s tenure, and while I was apalled at what he was doing, I was also appalled by a number of officers I interacted with who were cheerleaders for the visionary commandant. Not only on the force structure changes, but I was even shocked to find, when I had lunch with one who was soon to retire, who I had come up with in my younger Marine days, seemed all on board with cutting edge woke stuff being worked on at EDCOM. The jolt that finally blew my fuse was when the retired generals and admirals put out the letter questioning Berger’s force cuts. In speaking with one of the staff officers who was tasked with pulling together the Commandant’s response, the disparaging comments from a field grade officer about out of touch old generals really rankled. For all of my career and most of my post career, we always gave a voice and audience to our distinguished forbears, even if they weren’t always entirely on the mark. This just seemed a sea change that reflected the new political regime’s entire dismissal of our previous culture and ethos, as well as the common sense and hard won experience of years. Of course, I know there have to be plenty of officers who were not OK with any of this, since only those who were all in would feel able to speak their minds, but it won’t be easy to root out this abhorrent infection of the mind where it has been ingested in the ranks. Smith is no different and no better than Berger. Let’s hope the new civilian leader ship can toss out the corrupted upper brass and give a real voice to the younger warriors in the officer and enlisted ranks who smelled the bullshit and kept the faith.
I do not have the expertise or knowledge to comment on the readiness of the USMC, but I do know a few things that are relevant.
1. Chinese concept of warfare is "5th generation warfare." The book "Unrestricted Warfare" by PLA Cols. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui describes the early conceptions of this.
2. Many Western observers have pointed out that the Chinese military has carefully studied the WWII conflict in the Pacific, and has been working to build relations with governments on key islands, as well as building its own militarized islands in the South China Sea.
3. China has infiltrated the United States. The Salt Typhoon exploit and the 2015 OPM hack show that China surveils us at will. They have co-opted some of our political leaders (Bidens and McConnell come to mind) and put spies in the vicinity of others (Rep. Swalwell and Sen. Feinstein, for example). They purchase land next to U.S. military bases and surveil from there. According to DHS several hundred thousand Chinese nationals have illegally sneaked into America.
China has its own problems as the Chinese economy is a shambles and the populace unhappy (with good reason). Xi's approach is Maoist, which makes things worse for them, not better. The United States are in a far stronger position than China *if* serious, pro-American people are in charge. There's a chance that will happen under President Trump, if he can defeat the federal bureaucracy.
I strongly agree with your points. President Trump can defeat the Deep State bureaucracy by being ruthless within the confines of his presidential power in shaping the Federal government. It’s a life-and-death situation for himself as well as the nation. I just don’t see any reason not to prosecute Biden, Obama, Clinton, Pelosi , Bush, Cheney, etc. for their numerous crimes. Once their crimes are fully revealed by the DOJ to the American people, I don’t see anyone can say the arrests and prosecutions are politically motivated.
BUT I KNOW IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. So the possibility of a counteroffensive launched by the Deep State is still very high.
Yang, I suspect you are correct that it won't happen. The deep state is not going to take change lying down. Those 17 intelligence(?) agencies don't work for America. They work for themselves and the blob has all of the high tech toys at its disposal.
The government exists to protect itself and bleed the proles for its own benefit.
Leeches come to mind. Producing nothing consuming the host.
Yes, I agree. Except I would say it is very likely it won't happen, not that I know it won't. It was very unlikely President Trump would turn his head at the exact second his assassin was squeezing off a round. We do get miracles.
I am still dumbfounded when President Trump listened to the “advice” of his Deep State inner circle for a number of major decisions during his first term. Probably this is his personal limitations. But President Trump must understand that if he fails to eradicate the Deep State, he will be thrown into jail, the United States will be toppled and all patriots will be persecuted by the ruthless DS dictators. We are fighting for the nation’s survival, not just some optional routes going forward.
Great piece. Your historical references bring into focus Smith’s total lack of seriousness and preparation. People like him, Kirby, and Milley talk big and wear the uniform like it’s a costume. They are in no way ready to meet our adversaries.
The American military and our politicians don’t understand that winning 99% of the firefights and engagements doesn’t add up to winning a war. Tactical success cannot rescue oblivious, or even non-existent, strategy.
You covered it well. I have two kids in uniform, one Army, one Navy. In their first year, I've yet to get a positive anecdote from either concerning training, readiness, leadership, or anything else. Everything I've heard shows waste, laziness, and a focus on everything except what's important. As a Navy vet myself, the things I've heard leave me incredulous, and it's tough to believe my kids work for the same DOD I did, because there's little resemblance between them.
To have a Marine General speak so foolishly, when he's inherited a service that gave away most of its "teeth", to become ineffective light infantry that can't fulfill its basic mission, isn't suprising. The EABO concept is idiocy, and the idea of them becoming a threat to the Chinese by hiding on islands and sniping the occasional ship is ridiculous. With the Marines and Navy both out of the amphibious assault business, frankly, it calls into question the need for the Marines continued existence. (Apologies to you Marines out there- it truly hurt my heart to say that!! But...what's the real future??)
The DOD has clearly become unserious about warfighting, and a Generals blustering inaccurately about history is just further evidence that a top-down purge is needed, yesterday...
Cheer up, Our Luther has arrived bearing 18 Theses just nailed on Pentagon Door, DOD Reformation now. Our Luther is Hindoo and has a magic seeing Stone called Palantir … but take what you can get… I have been through enough up’s and down’s in MIL this is Up 🆙 hard..
Now that’s procurement, which touches a lot, but this is a major reform.
Moral Reform/Leadership Reform.
Hegseth: In terms of our Generals and Admirals, they’re scared of Hegseth for a reason. But no problem, because if they get choice one , Trump makes it worse. Don’t like Gaetz for AG?
Fine, here’s my lawyer Pam Bondi (who knows the system)
Have even more fun.
If Hegseth doesn’t make it, there’s MILLIONS OF US who aren’t as bad as Hegseth.
ExJ. NAVY vet here. Late 60’s. Carrier. Tonkin Gulf. Sad you are seeing today’s NAVY thru your son’s eyes. Gotta hurt bad. Likewise ARMY with another son. You guys stay safe.
Had a situation where a PFC was denied a relatively low-level award for actively overseeing the delivery of our unit weapons to an exercise because she had not passed her last APFT. The unit we were supporting, with an E-6 in charge of their weapons, was not able to do the same—their weapons were effectively lost for a 24-hour period.
The Marines are not the only ones who lost sight of what’s important.
I had really hoped to see someone push back on the criticism, someone saying something like, "no, his comments are all being taken out of context. He's not really an idiot." Sadly, that does not look like the case.
Most people go through their lives just sort of assuming the people above them are rational and competent. Then it's 1945 and your city of Tokyo is being firebombed into oblivion and you realize that all the generals and admirals really are just completely immune to reality and there's no way to fix it. They're the engineers on a train careening toward a collapsed bridge, arguing how to redecorate the club car.
Look at China’s annual ship production vs ours in terms of global capacity…not good. Taiwan scares me less than a blue water shooting match between USN & PLAN that puts our grey hulls on the bottom of the ocean. Our ability to recover is minuscule.
China may not have fought a war recently, but thanks to the US, Russia has. Russia has learned a lot about countering US weapons, and they are training the Chinese. If the US comes to bully China, Russia has China's back. Who has our back? NO ONE.
Shell? Russia is currently out-manufacturing the combined West in terms of armaments. It has a suite of weapons that have no equivalent in the West, and it’s outperformed most Western countries in economic growth metrics since 2022.
Yes, shell. Russia's per capita GDP is less than half of that of the U.S. They have a higher than average growth rate for the year (3.1%) because they are recovering from a collapse in 2022-3. Conservative estimates are that Russian army has suffered roughly 750,000 casualties in their Ukraine war and maybe 1,400 tanks. They've been evacuating most of their bases in Syria and losing their ability to project power in Africa, the Mediterranean, and, for that matter, the Black Sea.
For the long term, Russia has a serious demographic problem with reproduction below replacement. Their political system has no means for a smooth transition of power, their economic model is simply resource extraction; they are entrepreneurial and they do not innovate. (They get their drone systems from Iran, for Pete's sake, and are reduced to begging artillery rounds and troops from basket case North Korea.)
You are certainly correct, I think, that they have fielded impressive high-tech weapon systems. And they are ruthless. Those are their two strengths. Russia is certainly dangerous. But yes, a hollow shell.
The “collapse” in 2022 was about -2% of GDP in real terms. Russia overtook Japan in 2021 as the 4th biggest economy in the world per the World Bank.
750k casualties isn’t a conservative estimate, it’s wildly exaggerated. That would mean an AVERAGE of 5k killed and wounded per week. I don’t know what source you’re reading for that estimate, but the author is smoking some good crack. The Russian Army started the war at 1.1 million and has signed up another 600k-700k recruits - losses of 750k would be catastrophic and VERY noticeable in Russia’s ability to field units at full strength, as well as in other areas of Russian society.
Russias TFR this year was around 1.5 if I recall correctly, which is indeed below replacement, but it’s only a smidge under the US at 1.6 and a couple of tenths better than the average in most of Europe. On a relative basis they have a slight demographic advantage right now versus their western neighbors.
They did purchase some ammo from the NOKs but even so they still out manufacture the combined West almost 2:1 when it comes to artillery ammunition. In this case, buying ammo from others means they’re outshooting their capacity to produce, even if production is already huge.
I’ll give you the point about political succession. I’m not certain how Tsar Vlad’s successor will perform and what political volatility the end of the Putin Era might bring. Right now Russia is far from a shell though.
They have significantly expanded the number of troops in their army. They have also significantly increased production of “drones”, tanks and other armored vehicles, artillery shells, and missiles.
Huge difference between a conventional fight against a trained and prepared enemy and fighting a bunch of civilian dirt farmers. And…we won all those battles but lost the war there too.
The only way to learn to fight a conventional war after you’ve totally lost touch with the concept is to learn in action the hard way. And that’s gonna be costly. Imagine an American aircraft carrier at the bottom of the pacific for the first time since WWII.
Well said, Josiah! Excellent observations. You are right on target. Fire for effect!! We need real leaders. Men who understand the power or realistic accurate assessments of our enemy’s strengths and our own weaknesses to adapt to the former and address the latter!
Thank you. No court jester or “clown” can Lead our Marine Corps! I can only imagine a Chesty Puller conversation with this clown!
We appear to no longer be a sovereign nation. We fight foolish regime change wars for one nation and have pushed the communist and totalitarian nations to align against us… the long march through the institutions appears to have been successful. Not sure Trump will change this, I would like him to be a President of peace… but the current admin by committee is doing everything to assure we cannot be. I don’t even know if he’ll be sworn in. Some sort of game board is already being set… God help us.
I could be wrong... and perhaps the information we have received has been all smoke and mirrors meant to push a different narrative. It is hard to know. I seek my peace from God, He alone knows for sure what is happening in our world.
General Smith and the 38th commandant were/are egomaniacs in a small clown car inside the big tent in one of the outside rings racing in circles to prove how dumb and silly they are, and in the main insult most if not all Marines past and present from E1 to four stars who served before the MIC went bonkers and the congress promoted and enhanced dunce cap wearing fools like Milley, Austin and our own Frank MacKenzie author of the now infamous NEO from HKIA. Imagine engaging say a consultant group like but not necessarily McKinsey and Co., and have them encourage you to “divest to invest” all of the critical fighting equipment and units you need to meet your Title X statutory mandates. The consultants must have been giddy as they watched General Berger defy gravity on the high wire knowing he would crash and burn, but knowing the second clown AKA General Smith with his goofy high tight and fresh off passing his combat fitness test is doubling down on their intentionally bad advice! The Stand In Force and Marine Littoral Regiment concepts proving impossible to implement because the Corps had neither the T/O or T/E or the Navy to support the concept. Think of the money the consultants will make advising that the Marines buy back the gear they sold! Saigon Sam in JVille is smiling from Heaven, even he didn’t think this big!
Don’t lose hope, (YET…) but this Marine Infantry Officer would like to morph into the fly on the wall status when and if Mr. Phelan is confirmed as SecNav and has his first and only meeting with with CMC Smith. Hope springs eternal it goes something like this:
“hi ya General, congrats on passing your annual CFT and nice haircut. Can you tell me what it is you Marines do?” “I see you have a mission and you don’t do it. I see you have ground troops that are supposed to float but can’t, and wing assets that can’t fly and oh and an annual budget of $38 billion.” “Further in talking to my real bosses Elon and Vivek we think you nice fellas have out lived your useful purposes.” Dead silence and then the final nails in the 249 going 250 year coffin, “We are going to merge the ground with the Army and the Air with the Air Force, and thanks for coming in, have your papers on my desk tomorrow morning at 0800.” Let’s hope Chowder Society II can save our bacon and someone can get us our war fighting gear back in time for the next brush fire.
As to China, a peer to peer fight with the CCP and a population of 1.4 billion people needs to be explained to this writer. How and where is this happening? Will the rest of the global economies stand by and just watch the USA get its fat overly lazy ass kicked? How soon before the next Jake Sullivan talks his boss into a first strike of nukes? After all everyone knows you can “Win a nuclear war.” There are no serious people left in Washington DC, children with big toys that can end the world talking trash, and a really dumb four star living in the oldest standing structure in DC, saying we will be at war with North Korea in 2019.
We can only hope that on day one the new SecNav fires General Smith as well as all the other current 3 and 4 star Marine toady generals, moves some 1 and 2 star war fighters up and grabs some really tough smart 05 and 06’s who had their asses shot off as lieutenant’s and captains in the GWOT for deep selection to brigadier and Major General.
Great post by the way!
We need more Patton and less paton leather
Paton Leather is a sexy Women's boot made in Canada 🇨🇦.
😏
Brian, many many thanks for the reply. It is really helpful to hear how and where the “infection’ resides. You can’t surgically remove a cancer if you don’t know where to cut. We are likely separated in service time by a good bit, similar to your experiences senior officers particularly flag officers who chimed in from retirement got their good do, and for good damn reason. They had been there and done that, and frankly the lessons of maneuver warfare don’t really change much, other than speed and lethality. What is hard to sort out is where this idea of FD2030 came from, the apologists for Berger and Smith point to guidance from the NDA of 2022, but that doesn’t make sense to me. Okay China is a pacing threat (are they really? Just asking) but that doesn’t absolve the Corps from carrying its assignment and mandates missions. Imagine being so bereft of your own thinking that you ask staff officers to come up with a defense of your plan. If I couldn’t explain a scheme of attack in 5 paragraphs to my rifle platoon, I should have been relieved on the spot. Now to some good news I met a young 0302 1st Lieutenant over Christmas, my goodness was his stuff wrapped up tightly in small balls. He was careful, but was clear if the 38th and 39th CMC’s are thinking they are fooling these young Marines, they need to stop eating the mushrooms growing in the Commandant’s garden at 8th and I. I suspect you want to have a sip of our shrinking medicine so we can all be there when SecNav Phelan meets the CMC. Ought to be a knee slapper. In the meantime, if you already listen to the “connecting files” on Substack then you know how many good young 04/05/06 officers are out there. If not then it is worth subscribing. In a perfect world we just can all 4 stars, most of 3 stars and push the qualified 1-2 stars up and grab these young studs and get them going. As mentioned somewhere else, who says we can’t have a 1 star as a Division CG, while we accelerate their promotion to major general. We need a lot of out of the box thinking whilst we go back to the MAGTF box. It goes without saying Marine but thank you for being part of our jolly crew. We few we happy few. Would very much like to hear more!!
In the x ring again, Mr. Wemyss. Unfortunately, the infection runs deep. I was still working for the Marine Corps as a civilian during most of Berger’s tenure, and while I was apalled at what he was doing, I was also appalled by a number of officers I interacted with who were cheerleaders for the visionary commandant. Not only on the force structure changes, but I was even shocked to find, when I had lunch with one who was soon to retire, who I had come up with in my younger Marine days, seemed all on board with cutting edge woke stuff being worked on at EDCOM. The jolt that finally blew my fuse was when the retired generals and admirals put out the letter questioning Berger’s force cuts. In speaking with one of the staff officers who was tasked with pulling together the Commandant’s response, the disparaging comments from a field grade officer about out of touch old generals really rankled. For all of my career and most of my post career, we always gave a voice and audience to our distinguished forbears, even if they weren’t always entirely on the mark. This just seemed a sea change that reflected the new political regime’s entire dismissal of our previous culture and ethos, as well as the common sense and hard won experience of years. Of course, I know there have to be plenty of officers who were not OK with any of this, since only those who were all in would feel able to speak their minds, but it won’t be easy to root out this abhorrent infection of the mind where it has been ingested in the ranks. Smith is no different and no better than Berger. Let’s hope the new civilian leader ship can toss out the corrupted upper brass and give a real voice to the younger warriors in the officer and enlisted ranks who smelled the bullshit and kept the faith.
I do not have the expertise or knowledge to comment on the readiness of the USMC, but I do know a few things that are relevant.
1. Chinese concept of warfare is "5th generation warfare." The book "Unrestricted Warfare" by PLA Cols. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui describes the early conceptions of this.
2. Many Western observers have pointed out that the Chinese military has carefully studied the WWII conflict in the Pacific, and has been working to build relations with governments on key islands, as well as building its own militarized islands in the South China Sea.
3. China has infiltrated the United States. The Salt Typhoon exploit and the 2015 OPM hack show that China surveils us at will. They have co-opted some of our political leaders (Bidens and McConnell come to mind) and put spies in the vicinity of others (Rep. Swalwell and Sen. Feinstein, for example). They purchase land next to U.S. military bases and surveil from there. According to DHS several hundred thousand Chinese nationals have illegally sneaked into America.
China has its own problems as the Chinese economy is a shambles and the populace unhappy (with good reason). Xi's approach is Maoist, which makes things worse for them, not better. The United States are in a far stronger position than China *if* serious, pro-American people are in charge. There's a chance that will happen under President Trump, if he can defeat the federal bureaucracy.
I strongly agree with your points. President Trump can defeat the Deep State bureaucracy by being ruthless within the confines of his presidential power in shaping the Federal government. It’s a life-and-death situation for himself as well as the nation. I just don’t see any reason not to prosecute Biden, Obama, Clinton, Pelosi , Bush, Cheney, etc. for their numerous crimes. Once their crimes are fully revealed by the DOJ to the American people, I don’t see anyone can say the arrests and prosecutions are politically motivated.
BUT I KNOW IT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. So the possibility of a counteroffensive launched by the Deep State is still very high.
Yang, I suspect you are correct that it won't happen. The deep state is not going to take change lying down. Those 17 intelligence(?) agencies don't work for America. They work for themselves and the blob has all of the high tech toys at its disposal.
The government exists to protect itself and bleed the proles for its own benefit.
Leeches come to mind. Producing nothing consuming the host.
Yes, I agree. Except I would say it is very likely it won't happen, not that I know it won't. It was very unlikely President Trump would turn his head at the exact second his assassin was squeezing off a round. We do get miracles.
I am still dumbfounded when President Trump listened to the “advice” of his Deep State inner circle for a number of major decisions during his first term. Probably this is his personal limitations. But President Trump must understand that if he fails to eradicate the Deep State, he will be thrown into jail, the United States will be toppled and all patriots will be persecuted by the ruthless DS dictators. We are fighting for the nation’s survival, not just some optional routes going forward.
DOJ prosecution behind Bondi? Hardly. Betrayal is built in. In every dimension……Again LOL.
Great piece. Your historical references bring into focus Smith’s total lack of seriousness and preparation. People like him, Kirby, and Milley talk big and wear the uniform like it’s a costume. They are in no way ready to meet our adversaries.
The American military and our politicians don’t understand that winning 99% of the firefights and engagements doesn’t add up to winning a war. Tactical success cannot rescue oblivious, or even non-existent, strategy.
Well stated
You covered it well. I have two kids in uniform, one Army, one Navy. In their first year, I've yet to get a positive anecdote from either concerning training, readiness, leadership, or anything else. Everything I've heard shows waste, laziness, and a focus on everything except what's important. As a Navy vet myself, the things I've heard leave me incredulous, and it's tough to believe my kids work for the same DOD I did, because there's little resemblance between them.
To have a Marine General speak so foolishly, when he's inherited a service that gave away most of its "teeth", to become ineffective light infantry that can't fulfill its basic mission, isn't suprising. The EABO concept is idiocy, and the idea of them becoming a threat to the Chinese by hiding on islands and sniping the occasional ship is ridiculous. With the Marines and Navy both out of the amphibious assault business, frankly, it calls into question the need for the Marines continued existence. (Apologies to you Marines out there- it truly hurt my heart to say that!! But...what's the real future??)
The DOD has clearly become unserious about warfighting, and a Generals blustering inaccurately about history is just further evidence that a top-down purge is needed, yesterday...
Cheer up, Our Luther has arrived bearing 18 Theses just nailed on Pentagon Door, DOD Reformation now. Our Luther is Hindoo and has a magic seeing Stone called Palantir … but take what you can get… I have been through enough up’s and down’s in MIL this is Up 🆙 hard..
18theses.com
Now that’s procurement, which touches a lot, but this is a major reform.
Moral Reform/Leadership Reform.
Hegseth: In terms of our Generals and Admirals, they’re scared of Hegseth for a reason. But no problem, because if they get choice one , Trump makes it worse. Don’t like Gaetz for AG?
Fine, here’s my lawyer Pam Bondi (who knows the system)
Have even more fun.
If Hegseth doesn’t make it, there’s MILLIONS OF US who aren’t as bad as Hegseth.
We’re worse.
ExJ. NAVY vet here. Late 60’s. Carrier. Tonkin Gulf. Sad you are seeing today’s NAVY thru your son’s eyes. Gotta hurt bad. Likewise ARMY with another son. You guys stay safe.
Had a situation where a PFC was denied a relatively low-level award for actively overseeing the delivery of our unit weapons to an exercise because she had not passed her last APFT. The unit we were supporting, with an E-6 in charge of their weapons, was not able to do the same—their weapons were effectively lost for a 24-hour period.
The Marines are not the only ones who lost sight of what’s important.
I had really hoped to see someone push back on the criticism, someone saying something like, "no, his comments are all being taken out of context. He's not really an idiot." Sadly, that does not look like the case.
Most people go through their lives just sort of assuming the people above them are rational and competent. Then it's 1945 and your city of Tokyo is being firebombed into oblivion and you realize that all the generals and admirals really are just completely immune to reality and there's no way to fix it. They're the engineers on a train careening toward a collapsed bridge, arguing how to redecorate the club car.
Look at China’s annual ship production vs ours in terms of global capacity…not good. Taiwan scares me less than a blue water shooting match between USN & PLAN that puts our grey hulls on the bottom of the ocean. Our ability to recover is minuscule.
China may not have fought a war recently, but thanks to the US, Russia has. Russia has learned a lot about countering US weapons, and they are training the Chinese. If the US comes to bully China, Russia has China's back. Who has our back? NO ONE.
Russia is an empty shell at this point. They are reduced to being armed by the Iranians and North Koreans.
Shell? Russia is currently out-manufacturing the combined West in terms of armaments. It has a suite of weapons that have no equivalent in the West, and it’s outperformed most Western countries in economic growth metrics since 2022.
Yes, shell. Russia's per capita GDP is less than half of that of the U.S. They have a higher than average growth rate for the year (3.1%) because they are recovering from a collapse in 2022-3. Conservative estimates are that Russian army has suffered roughly 750,000 casualties in their Ukraine war and maybe 1,400 tanks. They've been evacuating most of their bases in Syria and losing their ability to project power in Africa, the Mediterranean, and, for that matter, the Black Sea.
For the long term, Russia has a serious demographic problem with reproduction below replacement. Their political system has no means for a smooth transition of power, their economic model is simply resource extraction; they are entrepreneurial and they do not innovate. (They get their drone systems from Iran, for Pete's sake, and are reduced to begging artillery rounds and troops from basket case North Korea.)
You are certainly correct, I think, that they have fielded impressive high-tech weapon systems. And they are ruthless. Those are their two strengths. Russia is certainly dangerous. But yes, a hollow shell.
2024 and people still miss PPP...
These numbers are adjusted for purchasing power.
The “collapse” in 2022 was about -2% of GDP in real terms. Russia overtook Japan in 2021 as the 4th biggest economy in the world per the World Bank.
750k casualties isn’t a conservative estimate, it’s wildly exaggerated. That would mean an AVERAGE of 5k killed and wounded per week. I don’t know what source you’re reading for that estimate, but the author is smoking some good crack. The Russian Army started the war at 1.1 million and has signed up another 600k-700k recruits - losses of 750k would be catastrophic and VERY noticeable in Russia’s ability to field units at full strength, as well as in other areas of Russian society.
Russias TFR this year was around 1.5 if I recall correctly, which is indeed below replacement, but it’s only a smidge under the US at 1.6 and a couple of tenths better than the average in most of Europe. On a relative basis they have a slight demographic advantage right now versus their western neighbors.
They did purchase some ammo from the NOKs but even so they still out manufacture the combined West almost 2:1 when it comes to artillery ammunition. In this case, buying ammo from others means they’re outshooting their capacity to produce, even if production is already huge.
I’ll give you the point about political succession. I’m not certain how Tsar Vlad’s successor will perform and what political volatility the end of the Putin Era might bring. Right now Russia is far from a shell though.
Oops, I meant they are NOT entrepreneurial.
Russia’s military is far stronger in every way than before they invaded Ukraine.
And why do you think that?
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/12/16/putin-claims-430000-new-recruits-to-russian-army/
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/17/ukraine-s-top-general-to-le-monde-the-number-of-russian-troops-is-constantly-increasing_6736188_4.html
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/12/sobering-update-from-nato-russias-military-now-larger-and-more-capable-post-invasion/
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-12-16/putin-new-troops-russia-army-16183055.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/putin-orders-third-increase-in-russian-troop-numbers-since-ukraine-invasion
They have significantly expanded the number of troops in their army. They have also significantly increased production of “drones”, tanks and other armored vehicles, artillery shells, and missiles.
That’s just stupid.
Do you consider that an argument?
The most important things about the man is
1. that Obama and Biden approve him
he didn’t stand up for his men when the jab was mandated
Huge difference between a conventional fight against a trained and prepared enemy and fighting a bunch of civilian dirt farmers. And…we won all those battles but lost the war there too.
The only way to learn to fight a conventional war after you’ve totally lost touch with the concept is to learn in action the hard way. And that’s gonna be costly. Imagine an American aircraft carrier at the bottom of the pacific for the first time since WWII.
THE NAME ON THE FRONT IS MORE IMPORTANT THEN THE NAME ON THE BACK
-Herb Brooks-
Every circus needs one, trouble is there are so many
"Too few have come, we don't have enough bureaucrats to break the firewalls of China!"
"No, but we will meet them in fugazi nonetheless!"
This sounds like all generals from all armies , around the globe.
Arrogance is a terrible fault!
Well said, Josiah! Excellent observations. You are right on target. Fire for effect!! We need real leaders. Men who understand the power or realistic accurate assessments of our enemy’s strengths and our own weaknesses to adapt to the former and address the latter!
Thank you. No court jester or “clown” can Lead our Marine Corps! I can only imagine a Chesty Puller conversation with this clown!
Thanks for your accurate analysis! Semper Fi!
We appear to no longer be a sovereign nation. We fight foolish regime change wars for one nation and have pushed the communist and totalitarian nations to align against us… the long march through the institutions appears to have been successful. Not sure Trump will change this, I would like him to be a President of peace… but the current admin by committee is doing everything to assure we cannot be. I don’t even know if he’ll be sworn in. Some sort of game board is already being set… God help us.
LDT,
You make several ominous, salient, and valid points.
Thank you.
I could be wrong... and perhaps the information we have received has been all smoke and mirrors meant to push a different narrative. It is hard to know. I seek my peace from God, He alone knows for sure what is happening in our world.
That is quite possible LDT